The Morning Consult 2024 election tracker has put Democrat Joe Biden in a two-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the race for president for the first time in a seven-point swing from earlier results. This is a notable pickup for Biden who had been trailing Trump in this poll by a moderate margin in the past.
Election analysts still think the race between the two in November is still too close to call. However, some speculate that this and other poll results might be indicative of Biden starting to gain ground on Trump, who previously enjoyed a comfortable early polling lead ahead of the election.
Morning Consult Survey
The survey from Morning Consult shows that Biden is now the leading in terms of vote shares. Biden has a vote share of 44 percent, which is two points higher than Trump at 42 percent.
Another notable finding from the survey is that the two candidates are tied among independents, which Trump has consistently led in the past.
Survey Method
This survey asked 6,018 registered voters questions about who they were voting for, the favorability of politicians, how much they trust Congress, and the top issues on their minds ahead of the election.
The survey was conducted between March 29 and March 31 and has a one-percentage-point margin of error.
Just Two Percent?
While two points in a single poll months ahead of the election may seem inconsequential to some, it is another data point that could spell trouble for Trump in combination with results from previous polls.
Another recent poll that looked at the results in swing states found that Biden was closing the gap on Trump in these critical areas as well. Swing states are important bellwethers for political analysts to determine what direction the wind is blowing for voter attitudes and opinions.
Biden is Now More Popular
Biden has also gained a favorability lead over Trump in the Morning Consult survey. This is the first time that Biden has ranked more popular than Trump among general voters since January.
Previous election polling showed a recent dip in Biden’s favorability, which it seems is on a slow road to recovery among Democrat and general voters.
Too Close to Call
While Biden appears to be closing the gap in swing states and overtaking Trump in popularity, election analysts are still saying the race is too close to call. In comments to Newsweek, associate professor of public policy at City University of New York, Heath Brown, said the race was “very close.”
“These latest polls confirm that this campaign is very close and will likely remain that way for the foreseeable future,” Brown said.
Polls Will Get Better Closer to Election
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University thinks that the polls we have at the present time can only give insight into general trends about the election because the race is so close.
“The polls will not start providing possibly a bit better information until starting in June as more people start paying attention to the election, and then much more so after both party’s conventions; by September they can start becoming more indicative,” Shapiro said.
Biden Approval Rating Rising
President Joe Biden’s approval rating has been slowly recovering. Reuters reported in late March that Biden had previously hit a 37% approval rating, which was the lowest in his presidency.
An online Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted after Biden’s State of the Union address found that two-fifths of Americans now approved of Biden’s performance.
Majority of Americans Still Disapprove of the President
The Reuters/Ipsos poll in late March still found that 56% of those surveyed disapproved of the president’s job performance.
The poll found that other top issues among voters were immigration and the economy. As an incumbent president, Biden has a harder time making a good economic case amid recent highs of inflation. On immigration, Biden also appears to be losing ground in results from recent polls.
Threat to Democracy
The recovery in favorability by Americans may be attributed to concerns over political extremism and threats to democracy, which saw a slight uptick in voting concerns.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 23% of respondents said threats to democracy were their top concern, which was up from 21% in the previous month.
Biden on Democracy
In his campaign so far, Biden has been aggressive in framing a potential second Trump presidency as a huge threat to the security of American democracy and democratic elections.
In a campaign event in January Biden said that Trump is “willing to sacrifice our democracy,” and has attempted to raise the stakes of the election to drive turnout from his base.
Trump Counterattack
Trump, in response to Biden’s accusations, has also returned fire with the same line of attack. Trump has called Biden a “threat to democracy” also.
“This country is finished if we do not win this election. I heard someone say that if we do not win, this may be the last election our country ever has. That is where we are going. Joe Biden is a threat to democracy,” Trump said at a campaign rally in Green Bay.
