After a recent 4.4 magnitude tremor shook the area near Los Angeles, concerns about a much larger quake loom. Dr. Lucy Jones from Caltech has noted, “2024 has had more earthquakes than any year we’ve seen since 1988.”

Given the period of calm that California has seen until now, Jones warned reporters that “we should expect this to continue.”

With predictions of a quake possibly hitting 7.0 or higher, the repercussions could be dire: about 1,800 people could lose their lives, 50,000 could be injured and the damage could exceed $200 billion. Dr. Lucy Jones emphasized the rising frequency of these smaller quakes as a serious concern.

She explained that minor quakes do not actually relieve underground stress but rather indicate an accumulation of it. “The most constant feature of earthquakes is the relative number of large to small,” she remarked.

She said, “For every magnitude seven, you have 10 magnitude sixes, 100 magnitude fives, 1,000 magnitude fours, etc.” An uptick in smaller quakes could be a forewarning of a larger one on the horizon.

Her comparison draws from data going back to 1932, highlighting a return to patterns of more frequent seismic activity.

Scenes of water bursting from Pasadena City Hall after a quake-induced rupture captured by local media remind us of the potential immediate impacts of even small seismic events.

This research employed sophisticated underwater scanning to analyze fault lines with a level of detail never seen before, providing valuable insights into earthquake risks.

“The accuracy and this resolution is truly unprecedented,” said Kelin Wang, a Geological Survey of Canada scientist.

This new understanding is crucial for assessing the true threat level of the fault line.

The four segments of the zone could potentially erupt simultaneously or independently. Each section contains different types of rock and seismic traits. This means some areas of the zone could be more dangerous than others.

The zone runs from Northern California to Vancouver Island. The Cascadia fault separates the Juan de Fuca and North American tectonic plates.

The potential devastation could affect millions, with projected damages in the tens of billions just for Oregon and Washington.

In a major Cascadia quake, inland hillsides would liquefy, taking out roads and bridges. The earthquake would damage approximately 620,000 buildings, including around 100 hospitals and 2,000 schools.

In the states of Oregon and Washington alone, a major earthquake in the Cascadian Zone would kill around 14,000 people.

He added, “It is quite late,” indicating that a significant seismic event could be due sooner rather than later.

Before the Kaikoura earthquake in New Zealand, there were a series of slow-slip earthquakes. These are quakes that release their energy over weeks or months and do not cause perceptible tremors. Scientists on the West Coast think these may precede larger earthquakes. Therefore, researchers could track slow-slip earthquakes to predict when a natural disaster could take place.

They need more data on slow-slip events, improved mapping on the fault zone and enhanced ability to monitor faults on the seafloor. Japan already has an elaborate array of seafloor sensors. However, David Schmidt, a geophysicist at the University of Washington, said Japan is “one of the few places that have those instruments.”

Robert Ezelle, the director of Washington state’s emergency management, said: “It’s going to be the worst natural disaster in our country’s history.”

Keeping informed, updating emergency plans and regular earthquake drill practices are recommended to help minimize the impact of potential future quakes.

However, many states that would be affected do not have a plan to protect residents. Washington state advises residents that they would have to fend for themselves for two weeks if a Cascadian earthquake happened. “It’s going to be neighbors taking care of neighbors,” said Ezelle.

However, a group of researchers have received $10.6 million in federal funding to add seismic sensors and seafloor pressure gauges to a fiber optic cable off the coast of Oregon.

The millions of dollars will be invested in seafloor pressure gauges and seismic sensors. The observatory will be able to produce real-time data to track activity in the Cascadian Zone.

However, we do not have precise data to confirm that. Seismologists say there could be low levels of seismicity, but they do not have the instruments to detect it yet. A seismologist on the project said: “If there are smaller events, we’d like to detect them to yield new insights as to what’s happening.”