Republican Donald Trump enjoyed an early polling lead heading in 2024 over his projected Democrat opponent Joe Biden. However, a New York Times/Siena College poll released Saturday shows that this lead may be narrowing.
This new survey shows Trump polling at 47 percent and Biden at 46 percent, a testament to how close the race feels with only months to go before voting starts.
Poll Findings
The New York Times/Siena poll released on April 13 asked voters “of the likely electorate” to choose a candidate if the election was held today.
47% of 1,059 respondents said Donald Trump, while 46% said Joe Biden. 7% of respondents answered “don’t know” or refused to answer this question.
Different Results Same Poll
These numbers for both men have shifted a few points since this same poll question was asked in February. The February version of the New York Times/Siena poll asked 980 respondents who they would choose among the two men.
48% said they would vote for Trump and 44% said they would vote for Biden. 8% of respondents answered “don’t know” or refused to answer.
Both Men are Unpopular
According to the poll, both presidential candidates remain unpopular among likely voters. Biden’s favorability rating rose one point from February to April to reach 42%.
Trump has been sitting at a consistent 44% favorability in this poll. It’s unclear how much favorability among voters will impact the results going into the election.
Margin for Error
This New York Times/Siena College poll was conducted among 1,059 registered voters between April 7 and April 11.
It has a margin for error that is plus or minus 3.3 points, which The New York Times says means it should reflect the views of the overall population “most of the time.”
Poll Methodoloy
The poll was conducted using a live interviewer who asked the respondents questions in English and Spanish. The New York Times reports that 95 percent of the poll respondents were contacted on a cellphone.
Survey respondents were selected from a pool of registered voters that contained demographic information to spread out calls to voters of different parties, races, and regions. The polling team made over 127,000 calls to 93,000 voters.
Change in Support?
This shift in the same poll among the same demographics of voters suggests that a change could be happening in the wider voter base.
One answer to this shift may be in Trump’s supporters. The poll found that the former President, who relies on loyalty from his base, has lost 3% of his 2020 voters since February.
Is Biden Gaining Support?
According to this poll, it appears Biden has been picking up some of the supporters he had previously lost. In February, the poll found that only 85 percent of Biden’s 2020 voters said they would re-elect him.
In the April version of the poll, this number had increased to 90 percent of his 2020 voters.
Why is Trump Losing Steam?
An AP VoteCast survey found that a small group of Republicans in several states do not think Trump will have a successful presidency, saying they would refuse to vote for him in November.
“I won’t vote for Trump, I’ll just say that. I voted for him twice; I could never vote for him again,” said Linda Binkley a registered Republican who isn’t pleased by the prospect of a Trump vs. Biden matchup. “I’m not sure I can vote for Biden.”
Abortion Issue
Trump and Republicans have been struggling to please both pro-life allies in their camp and the general voting public who supports some forms of abortion. Recently, Trump made a video declaring abortion as a state’s rights issue.
“The states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both. And whatever they decide must be the law of the land,” Trump said. “Now, it’s up to the states to do the right thing.”
Leading Pro-Life Group Disappointed
A leading pro-life advocacy organization called Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America announced their disappointment in Trump’s abortion stance.
“We are deeply disappointed in President Trump’s position. Unborn children and their mothers deserve national protections and national advocacy from the brutality of the abortion industry. The Dobbs decision clearly allows both states and Congress to act,” said SBA president Marjorie Dannenfelser.
Trump Still Leading
While this poll may be bad news for the Trump team, it still shows him with a lead over his opponent. Support among the two remains neck-in-neck but they are generally unpopular with American voters.
A Wall Street Journal survey from earlier this month found that Trump is leading Biden in six of the seven swing states. Analysts are watching voting attitudes from these states closely, which may be critical in deciding the outcome of the race.
